S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 16/9/26

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7550/40

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7762/86 SUP 7538/46

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7630/10

DAILY RANGE RES 7689 SUP 7550

2 SIGMA RES 7764 SUP 7479

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7584 RES 7664

2 SIGMA RANGE SUP 7543 RES 7704

GAMMA FLIP 7645

DELTA FLIP 7720

PUT WALLS 7574/ 7533

CALL WALLS 7730 / 7686

UNFILLED GAPS 7541

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL ‘ 7699

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7717

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  (VVIX / VIX) 5.39 sits within the historical norm (typically ranging between 5 and 7), suggesting moderate tension building without extreme panic

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM  DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM WBBZ TARGET RTHCLOSE

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.28(The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

THE TAKE: HAWKISH DOT PLOT EXTENDS EQUITY LOSSES AS CURVE FLATTENS

US equity benchmarks closed lower for a third consecutive session after an intraday post-FOMC rally faded. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% with no dissents. However, the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) delivered a distinctly hawkish message:

  • 2026 Dot Plot: Signals one additional rate hike later this year (median of 2 hikes total in 2026). Distribution: 2 participants favor only today's hike, 4 favor 3 hikes total, and the majority see 2 hikes.

  • 2027 Path: Projects zero rate cuts in 2027, with 8 participants modeling a 4.25%–4.50% policy rate by year-end 2027.

  • Inflation Upgrade: Year-end 2026 Core PCE forecast was revised up to 3.4%, indicating officials see limited downside relief from upcoming methodological recalculations.

WTI Crude dropped -3.52% to $102.10/bbl on reports of progress regarding Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, though Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains an overhang. Meanwhile, the US 10-Year yield pushed higher to 5.0205%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped +69 bps to 100.30.

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,551.00 (-0.45%) | VIX up +2.97% to 17.71 | MOC $1.25B to SELL | Remaining weekly straddle priced at 1.07%

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 28,945.00 (+0.03%) | Outperformed broader tape on profitable AI hardware bid

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,858.00 (-0.40%) | Small-caps remain under pressure from sustained 5%+ long-end yields

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,461.00 (-1.21%) | Underperformed due to heavy drag from cyclical value and dividend names

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 5.0205% (+1.9 bps) | Holds above 5.0% as hawkish SEP reinforces curve-flattening bias

  • WTI Crude: Price at $102.10 (-3.52%) | Gave back gains on East-West pipeline headlines; Hormuz/Iran risks remain

  • Gold: Price at $4,265.00 (-0.63%) | Pulled back under pressure from a stronger USD (DXY 100.30) and higher real rates

  • Bitcoin: Price at $76,283.00 (+0.53%) | Stabilized alongside tech megacaps

  • CBOE VIX: Closed at 17.71 (+2.97%) | Fixed strike vol relaxed post-event as panic failed to materialize

AI COMPLEX BIFURCATION & FACTOR ROTATION

The AI sector reversed yesterday's software-led move, displaying a sharp split between profitable, duration-backed hardware vs. speculative productivity plays:

  • Data Centers & Infrastructure (GSTMTDAT): +1.28% | Caught a strong bid as capital expenditure commitments remain firm.

  • AI Semiconductors (GSCBSMHX): +0.89% | Rebounded alongside core hardware names.

  • Software At Risk (GSTMTSOS): -1.83% | Sold off as high-multiple duration software faced renewed rate pressure.

  • AI Productivity Basket (GSXUPROD): -2.19% | Weakness concentrated in speculative execution plays.

GS RATES STRATEGY & DERIVATIVES COLOR

  • Rates Strategy Take (Will Marshall): While hawkish relative to baseline expectations, the median dots and SEP core PCE print (3.4%) reflect a vigilant, inflation-focused Fed. The breadth of support for another hike this year and 8 projections for a 4.25%–4.50% rate in 2027 should preserve the recent yield curve flattening.

  • Vol & Desk Flows (Shayna Peart):

    • Vol Surface: VIX expiry cleared quietly in the morning (1m variance settled at 16.79). Fixed strike vols relaxed post-announcement as the market failed to realize the downside straddle.

    • Option Positioning: Sizable buying in IWM end-of-month upside calls and GLD call spreads (Sep to Jan tenors), playing both immediate FOMC volatility and a longer-dated breakout.

    • Dealer Gamma: Heavy concentration of dealer long gamma to the topside remains intact, creating a resistance ceiling for breakout rallies without major geopolitical de-escalation.

  • Institutional Desk Activity (4/10 Rating):

    • Asset Managers (LOs): Net sellers of -$829M (supply in macro products and tech vs. light demand in Comm Services and Discretionary).

    • Hedge Funds: Small net buyers overall (demand in Tech, Discretionary, Comm Services, and Staples vs. short supply in macro products and Financials).