The Dollar trades moderately positive against major currencieson Friday with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, where strongfundamentals pushed the currency sharply higher. US retail sales report is due latertoday and market consensus about dynamics of the major component of consumptionis slightly downbeat, at -0.4% MoM. Extremely upbeat US inflation report, as wediscussed yesterday, indicated that a good part of inflation pressure comesfrom excessive price growth on certain goods (used and new cars, as well asfuel), which to some extent reflects strong demand for them. Based on this fact,June retail sales print will probably surprise on the upside, however marketimpact of this may be muted since investors had enough time to digest Juneinflation report. Nevertheless, ifretail sales excluding autos deliver an upside surprise, this will indicate agood pace of expansion of the US economy and should fuel rumors that the Fedwill move to tapering earlier than expected.

Also, let’s not forget about the existence of such a short-termtendency as continuing shift in consumer spending on services as economy reopensand lockdowns are lifted. This effect still impacts consumption dragging down retailsales, which do not include most services (except dinning outside).

The big surprise will be a negative deviation in retail sales,which should cause a strong and sizeable downside correction in USD.

Powell, speaking this week in Congress, continued maneuveringbetween the rock and the hard place, recognizing heightening inflationpressures and at the same time trying to make arguments why it’s too early todiscuss QE tapering. In general, this stance does not rule out early policytightening, but a downbeat stream of eco data will quickly shake positions of proponentsof this scenario. The Fed clearly wants to extend stimulus if there is noupside spike in inflation and long-term bond holders trust the Fed as this shouldkeep long-term rates low.

On the technical side of USD index, buying pressure is clearlyon the rise as can be seen from the pattern of higher highs and higher lows on1H timeframe:

This pressure apparently concentrates near the upper bound ofmid-term trend channel, which plays the role of the main resistance level.Markets are trying to price in a scenario where the Fed takes the lead in thetightening race as the lag of other central banks in tightening action willcause a temporary flow of investors to where the rates are higher, i.e., in theUS.

A goodexample of a situation where expectations are rising that some Central Bankwill start hiking rates earlier than others is today's appreciation of NZDUSDby 0.45%. The data for the second quarter showed that inflation acceleratedsharply - to 3.3% YoY against the forecast of 2.8%. As a result, the odds thatthe RBNZ will hike the rate in August have sharply increased. Similar reasoningcan be applied to the scenario where the Fed makes a hint at early QE taperingwhich will likely help USD to embark on medium term uptrend.